Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Last One In

The race for the last Big Ten Tournament slot is down to the final three games. Purdue is your clubhouse leader, but both Michigan and Penn State have an outside chance of playing in Columbus next week. Courtesy of an unnamed source, here are the winning percentages of each of the three depending on how many wins they post this week.

Purdue (who host Illinois)
.391 - If they lose all three
.435 - If they win one
.478 - If they win two
.522 - If they sweep

Michigan (who visit Northwestern)
.333 - If they lose all three
.375 - If they win one
.417 - If they win two
.458 - If they sweep

Penn State (who host Minnesota)
.333 - If they win one
.375 - If they win two
.417 - If they sweep (PSU holds tiebreaker w/Michigan)

Basically, Purdue is in the proverbial driver's seat. With one win over Illinois, the Boilers eliminate Penn State and force Michigan to sweep NU. Two wins and they bounce UM and clinch the final spot. I'll let you review all the other possibilities.

If someone out there has done the same math for winning the regular season title, and would like to share, I'd gladly post those numbers as well. Just drop me a note with the figures. (Look, we know my math is suspect.)

5 comments:

formerlyanonymous said...

The next question is what is the weather supposed to be like at each park and how could rain outs affect the final W/L%. Would teams make up games? Or better yet, if Purdue was rained out one game, and that game is the difference between going or not... Do they make it up Monday?

formerlyanonymous said...

Just went and checked @Purdue -
40% Friday and Saturday (scattered t-storms)

Evanston - 40% Friday/Saturday. Friday scattered t-storms, Saturday straight up t-showers

State College - 20,30,30% scattered t-storms sat, few showers sunday

Robbie said...

The Illinois/Purdue series will probably be the biggest one this because it has a big effect on the top spot and the #6 spot!

Chris Webb said...

Purdue beats Illinois, so Penn State is out of contention.. not good for the Bucks, hoped a fired up PSU would deal Minny at least 1 win.

The Purdue victory also means Michigan now needs to sweep, and Illinois win the next two over Purdue.

Word is out Illinois pitcher Ben Reeser is done for the year.

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